Do you think Harper is in touch with the Economy? Yes. No. Why?
Conservative support collapsing in key ridings: pollUpdated Wed. Oct. 8 2008 10:01 PM ET CTV.ca News In the last week of campaigning before the Canadians go to the polls, Conservatives are rapidly shedding support in the battleground ridings that could determine the outcome of the election. The drop in support coincides with a sharp decline in Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s favourable ratings, particularly in Quebec. “He has gone from hero to zero in just a matter of weeks,” pollster Peter Donolo of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca. “(The Conservatives) were going build their majority in Quebec — now they are fighting for their political lives there to hold on to the very modest inroads they made in the last election.” In the 15 tight ridings in Quebec, only 40 per cent of those polled had a favourable impression of Harper, a drop of 18 percentage points from those polled a month earlier. The new Battleground 2008 poll of 45 close races in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and the Globe and Mail, comes less than a week before Canadians head to the ballot boxes on Oct. 14. In polling conducted Oct.5-7, the Conservatives lost ground in all three provincial battlegrounds over the past week. In Ontario and British Columbia, the Liberals have almost pulled even with the Tories. “The Conservatives should be happy the election is only six days away,” Donolo said. “They’ve had a very difficult week.” In Quebec, the Conservatives are now sitting third, behind the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals, in the battleground ridings. The Conservatives dwindling numbers coincide with a period of global economic uncertainty, even as Harper had repeatedly said that Canada’s economy remains strong. Donolo said that some gaffes made by Harper have hurt his party in the polls. “That’s the problem when you put the entire campaign on the shoulders of the leader . . . if the leader stumbles then there’s not a lot to cushion to party,” he said. In Quebec, Harper’s comment that “ordinary Canadians” don’t care about the arts have really hurt his numbers. On Tuesday, the last day of Oct. 5-7 polling, Harper said the economic downturn has created “buying opportunities” on the stock market — which has led to opposition cries that he is “out of touch.” Ontario polling According to polling conducted Oct. 5-7 in Ontario’s 20 battleground ridings, the Conservatives held 35 per cent support, a loss of five per cent from polling done from Oct.1-4. The new numbers are down a full 10 points from the Tories’ highest mark of 45 per cent in those same ridings in late September. The Liberals are closing quickly, a trend that could be an election game changer: (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):
Another sobering finding for Harper in these battleground ridings is that 53 per cent of those polled said they thought it was time for a change in government, compared to only 36 per cent who thought it the wrong time for a change. The Conservatives are losing support in the all-important 905 battlegrounds of Ontario, down to 39 per cent support. That is a 10-point decline from their September high. “The silver lining (for the Tories) is that their loss is not directly the Liberals gain,” Donolo said. He said that the NDP and the Greens could draw support away the Liberals in close races, allowing the Conservatives beat the split. But a higher percentage of Green and NDP voters in this poll say they are willing to change their vote. Of NDP voters, 31 per cent say they might change their vote, and 35 per cent of Green voters say the same. If those voters decide to move to the Liberals to counter the Conservatives, next Tuesday could be very close in Ontario. Quebec polling The Conservatives hoped to make major inroads in Quebec, but their support in the battleground ridings is dwindling, putting a majority all but out of reach. The Bloc Quebecois, which was floundering before the election call, has been given new life over the campaign :(Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll)
British Columbia polling In British Columbia’s 10 battlegrounds, the Tories are rapidly bleeding support and the race is now a statistical tie as the Liberals are within the margin of error. Here are the parties’ results in B.C. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):
The Conservatives had as much as 46 per cent support in September polling in B.C. battlegrounds. Harper’s favourable ratings lower Harper’s personal stock has taken a solid hit in the Oct. 5-7 poll compared to polling a month ago. In British Columbia battlegrounds, those who as favourable impression of Harper dropped to 52 per cent, compared to 61 per cent a month earlier. In Ontario, 52 per cent of respondents thought favourably of Harper, a drop of ten percentage points from early September. In Quebec, Harper is sitting at 40 per cent favourable, well down from 58 per cent in September. “The Quebec loss is monumental, it’s very rare to see a complete reversal inside a few weeks in a political campaign,” Donolo said. But Harper’s loss isn’t necessarily the Liberals gain. Liberal Leader Stephane Dion’s favourable ratings have improved modestly over the campaign in B.C. and Ontario battlegrounds but still only sit at 43 per cent and 41 per cent, respectively. “In a sense, if (Dion) was better perceived in B.C. and Ontario, his party would be picking up more of that Conservative vote,” Donolo said. However in Quebec, Dion has improved remarkably in his favourable ratings, in part spurred by a strong showing in the French leaders’ debates. His favourable rating sat at 51 per cent, compared to 36 per cent a month earlier. NDP Leader Jack Layton had the best favourable ratings by far in this poll. In B.C., it was 62 per cent, with an impressive 70 per cent in Ontario and 71 per cent in Quebec. Technical notes: The poll was conducted from Oct. 5-7 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail. The B.C. battleground ridings have a sample size of 390 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points. The Ontario battleground ridings have a sample size of 420 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The Quebec battleground ridings have a sample size of 405 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 battleground ridings. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled. |
10/09/2008
Thanks for posting the article, was certainly a great read!
10/10/2008
I would like to comment on how the media tries to sway the voters. It does not affect me other than to long for days past when a would be voter had only radio and possibly a newspaper to use as a guide.
I feel sorry for any person of any party who runs for Prime Minister of Canada or President of The United States. Immediately the wolves set out to de-characterize,demoralize and tear to shreds that individual.
In the United States, I feel, the slander is much worse.
Whether President Bush was right or wrong, he didn’t deserve the vicious, cruel attacks received from the press. This is fuel for the enemy. I fail to see why someone hasn’t clued in before. I hold our leaders in high regard, whichever party, I am non partisan. Please be kind! They have a very tough job, Thank you for your listening ear.
10/10/2008
Taken from the Conservative Party of Canada web site.
http://www.conservative.ca
Harper versus Dion: a clear choice
October 09, 2008
Strong economic management versus a risky new carbon tax
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has spent the last two years buttressing our economy. When no-one else was concerned about the possible storm ahead, Stephen Harper was talking about it, planning for it, and implementing the changes that are necessary to allow us to withstand the storm.
At the year-end interviews last year, the Liberals were calling Stephen Harper a scrooge for not rejoicing that the good times are here to stay. But the Prime Minister saw that a storm would be coming, and he started to plan.
Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton voted against our Capital Markets Plan that requires more bank disclosure of risks and debts. They also voted against additional powers for the Bank of Canada to supply market liquidity – powers the Bank has been using continuously over the past week.
When the Conservative Government was getting ready; the Opposition was nowhere to be found.
Canadians are rightly concerned by what they see on the news. They are worried about their jobs, their mortgages, and their retirement savings.
But Canadian banks and insurance companies are not failing as they have in other countries. The World Economic Forum recently rated Canada as having the worlds’ soundest banking system. That is because Stephen Harper has been implementing a plan for two years to protect of financial institutions and our economy. His leadership has prevented the kind of meltdown we see south of the border.
This is not the time for higher taxes, job-killing taxes, new taxes on gasoline and home heating, and deficit spending that will hurt our economy and kill jobs.
The Conservatives offer a continued path of lower taxes, balanced budgets, protecting and investing in jobs, and keeping prices in check. We’re on the right track.
The Opposition parties offer gimmicks, deficit spending and higher taxes. That’s the wrong way to go.
That’s what this election is about. That is the choice facing Canadians.
10/10/2008
Taken from the Liberal Party website
http://www.liberal.ca
October 8, 2008
Harper out of touch with the fears and hopes of Canadians
TORONTO — Prime Minister Stephen Harper is completely out of touch with the impact the current economic turmoil is having on the lives of everyday Canadians, seeing buying opportunities instead of the fear people have about their savings and jobs, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion said today.
“With an election less than a week away, Canada’s economy is confronting significant challenges,” said Mr. Dion in a speech to the Canadian Club of Toronto and the Empire Club of Canada. “But rather than acknowledging the fear and hurt being felt by Canadians, Mr. Harper said yesterday that he saw ‘buying opportunities’ in the stock market.”
“Mr. Harper has failed the first and most important test of leadership. He doesn’t realize that as Canadians we worry about our savings, our jobs. For many of us it is more than the worry. It is the hurt, the harm.”
Mr. Dion said that the Conservatives have no coherent plan to help Canada’s economy, underscored by the release of yesterday’s 11th hour platform which offers meagre relief for Canada’s hard-hit manufacturing and forestry sectors.
In contrast, the Liberals have a plan for this country, both for our long term prosperity and for the short-term challenges we face right now.
“We have unveiled an action plan for the first 30 days of a Liberal government, to create jobs, to spur investment. Unlike the Conservatives, we know what to do to protect Canadians’ savings, their pensions, their homes, their jobs. And unlike Stephen Harper, we are willing to act to get the job done,” he said.
Mr. Dion said the Liberal Party is the only party that understands how the market economy works, how the government works, and how the two must work together.
“Yesterday Mr. Harper said that an economic storm was no time to switch boats. Well, I say, the captain of the boat is asleep at the wheel,” he said.
“For the sake of all Canadians, we need to change course, we need to change the captain, we need to change the whole crew.”
10/10/2008
Taken from the NDP website.
http://www.ndp.ca
Tough times demand leadership to pull us together: Layton
Thu 09 Oct 2008
‘Working families need leadership that’s on their side’
SUDBURY – Speaking to a crowd of enthusiastic supporters, New Democrat leader Jack Layton today blasted Prime Minister Stephen Harper for ignoring the interests of everyday families, and failing to show leadership in difficult times.
“Today, ordinary working families are worried about their savings, their pensions, their homes, and their jobs. They’re having a tough time making ends meet – and five million Canadians don’t even have a family doctor,” said Layton.
The New Democrat leader slammed Harper’s indifference to the concerns of everyday families: “Make no mistake, Stephen Harper picked his side. He looks out for big oil and big banks, and gives away billions of dollars in tax breaks to his corporate friends. Working people deserve better.”
Layton expressed optimism that Canadians will “get through the tough times ahead…if we stick together. Now is the time for strong leadership, not denials. Now is the time to pull together – not leave people on their own.
“As Prime Minister, I’ll make sure no one is left behind”, said Layton.
The New Democrat leader appealed to supporters of the Liberal, Green, and old Progressive Conservatives to come together and defeat Stephen Harper by supporting New Democrats.
“Everyday families can count on us,” concluded Layton. “We’re on your side.”
10/14/2008
Stephen Harper is the best Prime Minister this country has had in 50 years. He is, I believe, the greatest current leader in North America and the free world. I simply cannot believe that this election is even close. The greatest thing that Mr. Harper did so far with respect to the economy, and which noone seems to be talking about is this. He had the foresight to see the greatest contributor to the housing troubles in the U.S. and immediately eliminated the “Zero” down and 40 year amortizations that the banks were offering. This was allowing people, who in fact could really not afford it, to purchase homes that were above their means.